South Korean Defence Minister Shin Wonsik. AP File
As North Korean leader Kim Jong Un rolls out new warheads capable of striking the US and its allies in Asia, South Korea’s Defence Minister Shin Wonsik has said that North might consider a nuclear test around the time of US presidential elections to raise its profile.
“North Korea has completed preparations to conduct a nuclear test when a decision is made,” Shin said in an interview to Bloomberg in Tokyo on Sunday.
“We cannot rule out the possibility of that decisive moment being right before or after the US presidential election to raise its leverage against the US,” Shin added.
Shin, who is visiting Japan to sign a deal with the US and Japan to lock in gains in security cooperation that have included joint military training, said Seoul will reach a deal with the two partners to standardise the tracking of missiles fired from North Korea.
Shin said the US, Japan and South Korea started real-time data sharing since December on missile launches and have come up with standard operating procedures for information sharing.
“The three countries have almost reached an agreement on the SOP,” Bloomberg quoted him as saying, adding he expected a deal to be signed soon.
North emboldened by Russia?
North Korea may be emboldened to conduct a nuclear test due to its increasing cooperation with Russia, which the US and South Korea say involves arms transfers to support President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
In September, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pledged unwavering support to Putin during the Russian president’s first visit to North Korea in 24 years. The two leaders also signed a mutual defense agreement, reviving Cold War-era alliances now reinforced by their nuclear capabilities.
Putin has suggested that Russia might use its veto power at the United Nations Security Council to prevent any new sanctions against Kim for defying international resolutions with weapons tests.
The global risks are substantial. A full-scale conflict on the Korean Peninsula could result in millions of casualties and inflict $4 trillion in economic damage within the first year, or 3.9% of global GDP—more than twice the cost of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Additionally, reports indicate that North Korea has dispatched 12,000 shipping containers to Russia, potentially containing up to 5.6 million artillery shells.
Shin said the Kim’s regime has also sent scores of ballistic missiles to help Putin in his war.
“We believe that Russia is providing technical support not just for rockets, but for the modernisation of conventional weapons that North Korea wants,” Shin was quoted as saying.
“We will have to monitor with time how these technologies are transferred to North Korea and lead to changes in its weapons systems,” Shin added.
Timed provocations
Pyongyang often times its provocations with significant political events. While Kim Jong-un held three summits with Donald Trump, North Korean media dismissed Trump’s comments on their relationship. The regime has similarly dismissed the Biden administration’s calls to resume stalled denuclearization talks.
North Korea’s last nuclear test was in September 2017, featuring its most powerful bomb with an estimated yield of 120 to 250 kilotons. According to the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, North Korea has about 80 to 90 warheads and aims to build 100 to 300 in the long term, reported Bloomberg.
Last year, North Korea showcased its most extensive collection of warheads since Kim took power, demonstrating progress in weapon miniaturisation. This suggests possible future tests to validate the capabilities of new bombs designed for various delivery systems, as noted by the Open Nuclear Network in June 2023.
First visit by South Korean defence minister in 15 years
Shin’s visit to Japan is the first by a South Korean defence minister in 15 years.
Cooperation between Tokyo and Seoul grew after conservative South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol took office about two years ago and worked to repair ties that frayed due to historical issues.
That led to the Biden administration stepping up trilateral cooperation, which has brought the Asian nations closer on security issues.
The US has positioned tens of thousands of its military personnel in both countries.
Shin lauded the improved relations and said they are in the interests of both countries.
“Japan is safer when South Korea provides a shield at the frontline,” Shin was quoted as saying, referring to threats posed by North Korea.
“For South Korea’s safety, too, we are stronger when we have an assuring backing at the rear, from Japan,” he added.
With inputs from agencies
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Source link : https://www.firstpost.com/world/cannot-rule-out-the-possibility-south-korea-flags-norths-intention-of-conducting-nuclear-test-near-us-election-13798205.html/amp
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Publish date : 2024-07-29 03:10:41
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