Recent developments in South Asia, particularly the uprising in Bangladesh, are transforming regional dynamics with potentially global impacts. Home to 1.94 billion people, South Asia is grappling with rising extremism, democratic backsliding and political instability. As a key player in the Indo-Pacific, the region’s turmoil – particularly given Bangladesh’s strategic position in the Bay of Bengal – holds profound significance.In April this year, massive protests gripped Nepal, with demands for the restoration of the monarchy. Amid the unrest, political parties were able to form a coalition government as the country balanced ties between India and China. And now Bangladesh, South Asia’s second-largest economy, has experienced bloody regime change sparked by student protests over job quotas that escalated with extremist involvement.Students in Dhaka, Bangladesh, demand justice for victims arrested and killed amid violent demonstrations over job quotas. Photo: AFP
Overall, the outlook for democracy in South Asia appears grim, with ongoing shifts towards authoritarianism and mobocracy showing little sign of reversal. The impact on stability in the region as well as global geopolitics will continue to unfold, as major powers navigate this complex and volatile landscape.
South Asia has become entangled in US-China geopolitical rivalry, with significant implications for India. Projected to be the world’s third-largest economy by 2028, India has attracted US interest when it comes to countering China. However, New Delhi remains committed to strategic autonomy. Meanwhile, China’s growing regional influence poses challenges for India’s foreign policy interests.Recently, Bangladesh has become a victim of great power struggles. Under Sheikh Hasina’s administration, Bangladesh’s independent foreign policy and tilt toward Beijing have upset Washington. Bangladesh has been reluctant to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue – a platform comprising Australia, India, Japan and the US – and is a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.Bangladeshi politicians have alleged that the US wants to lease Saint Martin’s, an island in the Bay of Bengal – the US has denied this. Hasina has said she rejected an offer from “a white man” for a foreign country to establish an airbase in Bangladesh. In June, Hasina said she wouldn’t agree to to leasing Saint Martin’s although doing so would make it easier for her to stay in power. She has also said that there are conspiracies afoot to carve a Christian state out of Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Meanwhile, over the past decade, China’s influence in South Asia has grown through the Belt and Road Initiative, which South Asian nations such as Sri Lanka and the Maldives have joined. Infrastructure projects and cultural exchanges have shifted public perception, advancing China’s interests. This growing influence troubles New Delhi, as it affects India’s soft power and relationships with neighbouring countries.
Workers walk along the Colombo West International Terminal under construction in Colombo, Sri Lanka, in November 2023 as the US invests in the project to curtail China’s influence in South Asia. Photo: BloombergInterestingly, China, mirroring the US, has started to play a role in shaping the future direction of these countries. A rumoured diplomatic snub during Hasina’s recent visit to China could be one indicator of shifting regional dynamics. As prime minister, she allowed India access to the strategically crucial Mongla and Chittagong ports and favoured India over China for the Teesta River project.The US, a seasoned player in South Asia, has established a robust strategic nexus with Pakistan, exerted significant influence in Nepalese politics and maintained warm informal relations with Bhutan. The US has aligned with India through the Quad, defence cooperation and joint military exercises in the Indian Ocean. Its reported attempts to gain influence in Bangladesh, freezing of Afghanistan’s assets and strategic positioning in Sri Lanka and near the Strait of Malacca serve to maintain its hegemony in the region.
The US is engaged in a strategic chess game, with its foreign policy increasingly focused on countering China’s growing influence in the region. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor is also one such move to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia.
On the other hand, China has effectively utilised its economic power and diplomacy. It has strengthened its all-weather friendships with Pakistan and Nepal. The Maldives, a partner in the Indian Ocean, supports Beijing’s ambition for its Maritime Silk Route.
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Beijing’s diplomatic act in the region has served its interests in Myanmar, while balancing relations with Nepal and managing ties with Sri Lanka in spite of earlier setbacks. The recent developments in Bangladesh could present an opportunity for China to expand its influence, given its good relations with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Notably, China has become South Asia’s primary trade partner, with trade reaching US$197.4 billion in 2022 and growing at an average rate of 8.3 per cent.Furthermore, the evolving regional landscape may lead India to become more conciliatory towards Beijing over time, though it will maintain its position on the border dispute with China. The onus is on China to act maturely and seize the opportunity to amicably settle the border dispute in a way that benefits both sides.
The competing interests of major powers are reshaping South Asia’s dynamics, presenting both challenges and opportunities that will have significant global repercussions.
Sagina Walyat is an India-based constitutional lawyer and AsiaGlobal Fellow at the University of Hong Kong
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Publish date : 2024-08-09 10:32:00
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