By Anita Inder Singh,
Prime Minister Modi’s recent visits to Singapore and Brunei and his forthcoming meeting with other leaders of the Quad in America later this month highlight the role of the Indo-Pacific in India’s strategic outlook and Sino-Indian competition in the region as geopolitical circumstances change. Modi’s call for development, not expansionism, in Brunei was aimed at China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea.
In the Indo-Pacific, India is more “Indo” than “Pacific”, regardless of whether one uses the US definition of the region or India’s. Washington’s definition has omitted some of India’s most vital interests, including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. For India, the Indian Ocean extends till the coast of East Africa, and is India’s gateway to trade with West Asia, Southeast Asia, Japan, and South Korea.
That difference in itself identifies differences between American and Indian interests in the Indo-Pacific. The Persian Gulf is also significant for India as a major source of energy imports as well as trade with Europe and Africa.
Pacific China’s growing economic and military influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean prompted Delhi to adopt the Indo-Pacific concept. India therefore supports the idea of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” with its Quad partners — the US, Japan, and Australia.
Since its launch in 1992, India’s “Look East” policy has aimed to strengthen economic and cultural ties with Southeast Asia. In 2014, the policy became known as “Act East”. It broadened its horizons to include East Asia and to increase maritime security in the region. But India’s top priority is to strengthen ties with neighbouring Indian Ocean states in South Asia.
India wants the Indo-Pacific to retain its openness by adhering to international law and the principle of freedom of navigation. Unlike its Quad partners, India does not want a strategy aimed at containing China or annoying Beijing’s comprehensive strategic partner Russia which has been a long-standing arms supplier.
Moreover, as one of China’s partners in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, India avoids diplomatic confrontation with Beijing.
While hoping to accommodate countries which favour multipolarity and multilateralism, India, unlike China and Russia, is not anti-West. Simultaneously it does not wish to compromise its strategic autonomy by joining forces with America and its allies.
China stayed out of Delhi’s G20 summit, it has blocked India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and refused to support its bid for a UN Security Council seat. But India’s own tardy progress is the biggest obstacle to its limited regional and international clout.
Chinese economic and political engagement with Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Maldives through the Belt and Road Initiative since 2013 has raised concerns that India’s influence in South Asia is being undermined. Meanwhile. Chinese transgressions of the disputed border with India led to clashes in June 2021, and January and November 2022.
With the Quad partners, economic collaboration is inspired by the group’s concern about China’s strong position in the global manufacturing supply chain. And joint military drills enhance the collective military capabilities of Quad members.
Opposition from Russia — a key arms and technology provider — to the Indo-Pacific concept also requires diplomatic manoeuvering to dissuade Moscow from moving closer to Beijing. But Moscow is already closer to Beijing than Delhi because both are united by opposition to the West and because China can give Russia stronger economic and diplomatic support than India.
Japan, Singapore, Australia, and Brunei also differ strongly from India on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So trust between India and these countries develops slowly. Prioritising South Asia strategically, India will not be able to help them to repel a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
India’s economic ties with its Quad partners are not as strong as they could be. Japan and Southeast Asian countries put the onus for this on India. But Australia and India have signed a free trade agreement.
Economically, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) is a keystone of India’s “Act East” policy. Delhi’s focus is on enhancing physical and digital connectivity — including the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway — to foster economic integration. Asean-India trade topped $131 billion in 2023. But trade between Asean and China touched a new high of $702 billion.
India’s importance in the Pacific is reduced by its refusal to join the the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership multilateral trade agreement. Also, while India is strengthening ties with Singapore, its bilateral ties with other Asean countries are poorly developed. Delhi therefore hopes that Singapore becomes the bridge between other Asean countries and India.
At another level, the western Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf are greater priorities for India than Southeast Asia. As much as 61% of its crude oil imports traverse the Gulf and trade with the Arab world amounted to more than $240 billion in 2023. Additionally, the estimated 10 million Indians working in the Gulf present Delhi with annual remittances of some $36 billion.
Earlier this year, drone and missile attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on commercial ships in the Red Sea area and the retaliatory Anglo-American strikes on Yemen led India to deploy more than 10 Indian warships in the Arabian Sea as its security and economic interests were at stake.
All told, the Indo-Pacific will remain a defining element of India’s foreign policy. But India must cultivate stronger economic ties with countries in the region and sort out its differences with Quad partners to expand its influence and counter China in the region.
The author is founding professor at Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution, New Delhi.
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Publish date : 2024-09-11 12:02:00
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