An open conflict between Egypt, Ethiopia and Somalia, with the possibility of Eritrea joining in, will not only be a geopolitical and security disaster but also a humanitarian one
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The African coast of the Gulf of Aden is now almost at war as tensions heat up between Somalia and Ethiopia. The Bab al Mandab terminates into the Gulf of Aden with Yemen on the West Asian coast of the Red Sea and Eritrea and Somalia on the African coast. Houthis (Ansar Allah), an Iran-funded Shi’a terrorist militia, control the Yemeni coast of both the strait and the Gulf of Aden, whereas the Somali coast has reported increased piracy incidents since the Israeli-Hamas conflict spilled over into the Red Sea.
Two weeks ago, Somalia and Egypt signed a defence pact and after 40 years Egypt has sent defence aid to the beleaguered African nation. The root of the crisis in the Horn of Africa now is Ethiopia’s need for a seaport. Ever since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia has been landlocked, and it has craved an independent port. In January 2024, it surprised observers by signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the self-declared “Republic of Somaliland”, which is considered a province of the Federal Republic of Somalia, recognising its independence in return for a lease of 20 km of seacoast for its sovereign cargo/military port.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud immediately criticised the deal, calling it a “blatant violation of Somali sovereignty”. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly underlined that Ethiopia “cannot live in a geographic prison,” and that “the Nile and the Red Sea are the foundation of Ethiopia’s development or its annihilation”. His attempts to obtain a port from his neighbors (Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti) have so far failed.
The August 14 defence pact between Cairo and Mogadishu brings Egypt back to the Horn of Africa after four decades, increasing its strategic depth. On the Somali end, the strategy is to replace Ethiopian troops with Egyptian and Djibouti troops. Somalia continues to have endless security problems with the Al Shabab, an Al Qaeda-linked Sunni terrorist group, which Egypt may have expertise combatting.
According to Abdul Wahab Sheikh Abdul Samad, Executive Director of the Nairobi-based Afro-Asian Institute for Strategic Studies, Egypt plans to deploy up to 10,000 troops to Somalia, including air and ground troops equipped with heavy machinery, as part of its peacekeeping force. He said in a post on X that they would be stationed along the Ethiopian-Somali border in the Gedo, Hiran, and Bay Bakool regions. Experts have confirmed the arrival of two Egyptian military transport aircraft on Tuesday with 300 special forces commandos, arms and ammunition.
While Somalia has national unity interests in expelling Ethiopian peace-keeping forces from its territory, Egypt has a bone to pick with Ethiopia. One of the world’s driest countries, Cairo has said that the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile threatens its existence. Ethiopia has defended its right to build the dam, stating that the $4.5 billion project was crucial to its development. It has also accused Egypt of helping secessionist rebels in its western Tigray region.
Since Tuesday at least 10 Egyptian military transport aircrafts have been confirmed to have landed in Mogadishu with over 1,000 Egyptian military personnel with weapons, transport and armoured vehicles. Apart from training Somali military in anti-terrorism and peacekeeping operations, joint border missions will bring Egyptian troops in proximity of Ethiopian troops, increasing the chances of a new regional war in the Horn of Africa; this will also increase shipping and transport risks in the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb. The conflict in West Asia has already increased the porosity of the Horn of Africa. Sources have indicated that Yemeni Houthi-trained terrorists use Somalia to travel to Iraq to join a new “foreign legion”, created by Iran of fighters from Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, and coordinated by Hezbollah.
Egypt’s latest actions could also have been encouraged by the United Arab Emirates, which sees its relevance dwindle in the Horn of Africa. After the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU, the Somali President had signed an agreement allowing Turkey to patrol its shores, allowing Ankara to extend its influence into the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a close relationship with Abdullahi Farmajo, the previous Somali President, who has succeeded in expelling Emirati military advisors from Somalia. The current President, Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, is largely seen to be close to the UAE. Egypt is strongly supported by the UAE and works in coordination with Abu Dhabi on several strategic issues.
The latest move brings land control in Somalia under the influence of the UAE, while Turkey continues to patrol Somali coasts. Turkish attempts at informal mediation between Somalia and Ethiopia have so far failed. A war or skirmishes in the Horn of Africa will add to security concerns in the Indian Ocean, with India already keenly observing Houthi aggression. It will further destabilise trade between Europe and India, increasing tensions in the Indo-Mediterranean.
An open conflict between Egypt, Ethiopia and Somalia, with the possibility of Eritrea joining in, will not only be a geopolitical and security disaster but also a humanitarian one.
The author is a writer, who has worked closely and continues to advise various governments in Europe, Middle East and Africa. He is the founder of the Dialogue on Democracy. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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Publish date : 2024-09-01 22:11:00
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