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The Perpetual Horizon: Exploring the Future of Peace Between Armenia and Azerbaijan

by Ava Thompson
June 13, 2025
in Armenia
The perpetual horizon: Armenia, Azerbaijan and prospects for peace – European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
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Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have marked the South Caucasus for decades, fueling conflicts that have repeatedly destabilized the region. As both nations grapple with a legacy of hostility and territorial disputes, the prospect of lasting peace remains elusive. In its latest analysis, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) examines the complex dynamics underpinning this protracted conflict and explores potential pathways toward reconciliation. This article delves into the ECFR’s insights on the obstacles and opportunities that define the fragile peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, shedding light on what the future may hold for one of Europe’s most enduring geopolitical challenges.

Table of Contents

Toggle
  • Armenia and Azerbaijan Facing a Stalemate Beyond the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
  • Root Causes of Tension and the Role of Regional Powers in Sustaining Hostilities
  • Charting a Path to Durable Peace Through Confidence-Building Measures and Inclusive Dialogue
  • To Wrap It Up

Armenia and Azerbaijan Facing a Stalemate Beyond the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Despite the recent ceasefires and diplomatic engagements surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenia and Azerbaijan find themselves entrenched in a broader stalemate that extends well beyond territorial disputes. The fragile peace is threatened by unresolved grievances, mutual distrust, and competing national narratives. Key issues such as border demarcation, displaced populations, and economic cooperation remain suspended in a limbo, preventing the normalization of relations. Observers note that the absence of a comprehensive framework inhibits progress on confidence-building measures and fuels a cyclical pattern of tension and sporadic violence.

Efforts to move toward sustainable peace face multiple hurdles, including:

  • Political deadlock: Both sides maintain maximalist positions that hinder pragmatic compromise.
  • Geopolitical influence: Regional power dynamics complicate international mediation.
  • Societal mistrust: Deep-rooted narratives of victimhood and identity exacerbate divisions.
AspectArmenia’s PositionAzerbaijan’s Position
Border DemarcationCalls for international guaranteesEmphasizes sovereignty and full control
Refugees & IDPsDemand safe return and restitutionSeeks demographic status quo maintenance
Economic CooperationOpen to joint projects with safeguardsViews cooperation as leverage for concessions

Root Causes of Tension and the Role of Regional Powers in Sustaining Hostilities

The enduring friction between Armenia and Azerbaijan is deeply rooted in historical grievances, territorial claims, and divergent national narratives that have been intensified over decades. At the heart of the conflict lies Nagorno-Karabakh, a region internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but populated predominantly by ethnic Armenians. Competing interpretations of history and identity fuel mutual distrust, with each side invoking past traumas and perceived injustices to legitimize their claims. This longstanding impasse is further complicated by the legacy of the Soviet Union’s breakup, which left unresolved boundaries and ignited nationalist fervor. Moreover, underlying economic disparities and political instability continue to exacerbate tensions, impeding sustained dialogue and reconciliation efforts.

  • Historical narratives: Conflicting memories shaping national identities
  • Territorial disputes: Nagorno-Karabakh’s ambiguous status as a core issue
  • Political fragility: Internal dynamics limiting compromise

Regional powers wield significant influence in perpetuating or mitigating hostilities, acting as both catalysts and arbiters in the conflict. Turkey’s unwavering support for Azerbaijan, marked by military assistance and diplomatic backing, strengthens Baku’s position but diminishes prospects for impartial mediation. Conversely, Russia maintains a complex balancing act, supplying arms to both sides while simultaneously positioning itself as the key peace broker through its peacekeeping forces and diplomatic initiatives. Iran, sharing borders and cultural ties with the conflicting parties, adopts a cautious stance, wary of destabilization that could spill across its frontiers. These overlapping interests create a precarious geopolitical landscape where external actors’ agendas sometimes prolong confrontation rather than foster resolution.

Regional PowerRoleImpact
TurkeyMilitary support for AzerbaijanBolsters Azerbaijan’s stance, reduces neutrality
RussiaArms supplier to both sides; peacekeeper and mediatorMaintains influence over conflicting parties; balances power but may prolong stalemate
IranCautious observer; seeks regional stabilityAvoids escalation near its borders; limits deeper involvement

Charting a Path to Durable Peace Through Confidence-Building Measures and Inclusive Dialogue

Sustainable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan hinges on establishing a foundation of trust, which remains fragile after decades of conflict. Essential confidence-building measures such as joint economic projects, cross-border cultural exchanges, and transparent military communications can help diminish longstanding suspicions. These initiatives, supported by regional and international actors, not only reduce the risk of escalations but also foster a climate where both populations begin to see each other as partners rather than adversaries. Moreover, incorporating civil society and local communities in the peace process offers a grassroots dimension, creating channels for dialogue beyond official negotiations.

Inclusive dialogue remains indispensable as peace efforts transition from ceasefire to coexistence. This approach involves engaging diverse stakeholders including women, youth, displaced persons, and minority groups, ensuring that peacebuilding reflects the needs and aspirations of the broader society. Structured forums and multilateral platforms can facilitate this, balancing geopolitical interests with human narratives. Below is a simplified framework illustrating key pillars for a durable peace process:

Key PillarFocus AreaImpact
Trust & SecurityCeasefire monitoring, Demilitarized zonesReduced hostilities
Economic CooperationJoint business initiatives, Trade corridorsShared prosperity
Cultural DialoguePeople-to-people contacts, Educational programsMutual understanding
Inclusive ParticipationMinority rights, Women’s involvementLegitimacy and sustainability

To Wrap It Up

As Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to navigate the complexities of their protracted conflict, the path to lasting peace remains fraught with challenges yet also punctuated by cautious optimism. The European Council on Foreign Relations underscores that sustained international engagement, coupled with genuine political will from both sides, is essential to transform tentative ceasefires into durable reconciliation. While the horizon may seem perpetual, the evolving dynamics in the South Caucasus suggest that with concerted effort, a stable and peaceful future is within reach-provided that dialogue prevails over discord and mutual interests guide the way forward.

Tags: ArmeniaAzerbaijanCeasefireConflict ResolutiondiplomacyECFREuropean Council on Foreign RelationsGeopoliticsinternational relationsNagorno-Karabakhpeace processpeace prospectsregional stabilitySouth Caucasusterritorial disputes

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