By Anthony Marcus, correspondent for Eurasia Business News, June 22, 2024. Article n°1046.
China’s armed forces could easily isolate Taiwan, which would damage the island’s economy and force the country to fall under the control of the Popular Republic of China, CNN reported, citing a report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The report indicates that China’s refusal to condemn the conflict in Ukraine has only heightened these concerns.
“In recent years, China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan, fueling fears that tensions could escalate into direct conflict. Much attention has been paid to the threat of invasion, but Beijing has options other than coercing, punishing or annexing Taiwan,” the report says.
According to researchers, China may use the “quarantine” option. This is the so-called “gray zone” tactic, according to which the Chinese military can initiate a full or partial blockade of Taiwan, for so-called pandemic reasons. In particular, to block access to ports, cutting off vital supplies to the island, such as fuel, which would lead to the suspension of all economic activity of Taiwan.
The “quarantine” is not considered a blockade or a declaration of war, the report notes, which will put Washington in a difficult position, since if the U.S. naval forces try to intervene in the conflict, it will be the United States that will be considered its initiators. In addition, China will not have to close or restrict access to the Taiwan Strait in the event of a “quarantine”, which means that Washington and its allies will not be able to demand intervention in accordance with international law.
“If the quarantine is presented as a law enforcement operation, China can easily declare the operation over and the achievement of its goals,” the report states.
The naval, air and ground components of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the world’s largest military force, might play only auxiliary and support roles, authors Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Matthew Funaiole, Samantha Lu and Truly Tinsley write.
China considers Taiwan its territory. Chinese President Xi Jinping warned US President Joe Biden that the Taiwan issue is a red line for Beijing. On June 16, the Financial Times reported that Xi Jinping told the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in April 2023 that the United States was trying to provoke China to attack the island.
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East Asia has been an important area of influence for the United States since 1945. China expresses geopolitical ambitions for this region, claiming sovereignty over Taiwan and the waters of the South China Sea. But Beijing understands the challenges of directly challenging Washington and its naval power in the region. The United States has historically used its economic power, through high investments in Japan and South Korea, Washington’s allies against China and North Korea.
On the morning of May 23, the Eastern Area forces of the China People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Combat Command began large-scale exercises around Taiwan. In April 2023, China had already conducted military and naval exercises around Taiwan.
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Source link : https://eurasiabusinessnews.com/2024/06/22/csis-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-firing-a-shot/
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Publish date : 2024-06-22 15:45:23
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