China to Lead Global Semiconductor Foundry Market by 2030, Surpassing Taiwan Despite US Restrictions

China is poised to become the world’s leading semiconductor foundry hub by 2030, according to industry analysis highlighted by Tom’s Hardware. Despite ongoing U.S. export restrictions aimed at curbing Beijing’s technological ambitions, China is on track to command roughly 30% of the global installed semiconductor manufacturing capacity, potentially overtaking Taiwan’s longstanding dominance in the sector. This shift underscores the accelerating efforts within China to bolster its domestic chip production capabilities amid geopolitical tensions and supply chain realignments reshaping the global semiconductor landscape.

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China’s Strategic Investments Fuel Rapid Growth in Semiconductor Foundry Capacity

China’s aggressive push into semiconductor foundry capacity is reshaping the global chip manufacturing landscape. Despite ongoing US export restrictions and strict technology controls designed to slow Beijing’s momentum, the nation’s strategic investments in state-of-the-art fabs and local supply chains show no signs of abating. Chinese foundries are rapidly scaling up, driven by vast government subsidies, advanced research initiatives, and partnerships with domestic tech giants aiming to reduce dependency on foreign technology. This robust ecosystem enables China to capitalize on emerging opportunities in 5G, automotive semiconductors, and IoT sectors, positioning itself as a future leader in chip production.

Analysts project that by 2030, China will command approximately 30% of the world’s installed foundry capacity, surpassing Taiwan’s current dominance. Key contributing factors include:

Expansive fab construction: An increasing number of large-scale fabrication plants supporting advanced nodes.
Talent development: Workforce programs cultivating semiconductor experts domestically.
Supply chain localization: Enhancing resilience amid geopolitical tensions.

Year	China’s Installed Capacity (%)	Taiwan’s Installed Capacity (%)
2023	18%	32%
2025 (Estimated)	24%	30%
2030 (Projected)	30%	27%

Analyzing the Impact of US Export Controls on China’s Semiconductor Ambitions

The persistent US export controls targeting China’s semiconductor industry, designed to slow the nation’s ascent in chip manufacturing, appear to have only reshaped the landscape rather than halted progress. Despite stringent restrictions on advanced lithography equipment and design software, China is aggressively expanding its domestic foundry capabilities, leveraging government subsidies, strategic partnerships, and indigenous innovation to bridge technological gaps. This multifaceted approach enables Chinese firms to focus on mature and mid-range process nodes, where global demand remains robust, ensuring steady growth in manufacturing capacity.

Key factors driving China’s resilience include:

Massive state-backed investments: Enhanced funding fuels research & development and infrastructure projects.
Talent cultivation: Increased focus on semiconductor education and training programs to build a skilled workforce.
Supply chain localization: Reducing dependencies abroad by cultivating domestic suppliers for raw materials and equipment.
International collaborations: Selective partnerships with non-US entities to access alternate technology avenues.

Metric	2023	Projected 2030	Change (%)
China’s Installed Capacity	18%	30%	+67%
Taiwan’s Installed Capacity	25%	28%	+12%
Global Market Share	100%	100%	–

While the US controls limit access to the latest extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools, China’s strategic pivot towards incrementally improving mature technologies and amplifying volume production is set to reshape the semiconductor foundry market dynamically. Whether this growth translates into long-term technological leadership remains to be seen, but the expanding footprint signals a competitive global semiconductor ecosystem that is increasingly multipolar.

Recommendations for Global Stakeholders to Navigate the Evolving Semiconductor Landscape

As China is poised to command nearly a third of the global semiconductor foundry capacity by 2030, international stakeholders must rethink strategic alliances and investment priorities. Collaboration with Chinese fabs could unlock access to expansive market opportunities despite ongoing US restrictions. At the same time, diversifying supply chains by strengthening partnerships beyond Taiwan and South Korea will be critical to mitigate geopolitical risks and ensure resilience against potential disruptions.

To thrive in this evolving landscape, global players should consider adopting multifaceted approaches:

Invest in emerging semiconductor hubs in Southeast Asia and Europe to balance the concentration of manufacturing power.
Enhance R&D cooperation focused on next-generation chip architectures and advanced materials to maintain technological leadership.
Monitor policy shifts closely to capitalize on incentives and navigate export controls effectively.
Promote workforce skill development globally to address labor shortages and support innovative production techniques.

Stakeholder	Key Action	Expected Outcome
Chip Designers	Expand foundry partnerships beyond US and Taiwan	Reduced supply bottlenecks
Investors	Target emerging markets and tech startups	Diversified portfolios and growth potential
Policymakers	Craft balanced trade and export policies	Stable international cooperation

In Summary

As China continues to invest heavily in its semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, industry analysts predict that by 2030, the nation could command as much as 30% of the global installed foundry capacity-surpassing longtime leader Taiwan. This ambitious growth trajectory comes despite ongoing U.S. restrictions aimed at curbing China’s technological advancements. The evolving landscape underscores a shifting balance of power in the semiconductor sector, with significant implications for global supply chains and geopolitical dynamics in the years ahead.