While some have suggested a re-elected Trump may return to a pattern of “benign neglect” given his lack of a clear Asia strategy, others note that the mere anticipation of his comeback has already driven key US allies like Australia, Japan and South Korea to deepen cooperation with one another.A woman walks past an “America First” sign at the Republican National Convention on July 18. Trump’s first term was marked by protectionist tendencies. Photo: Reuters
“If a second Trump administration acts on its stated commitments to ramp up tariffs on allies and adversaries alike and slash development assistance, the US will have fewer carrots in its toolkit when engaging prospective partners,” said Alice Nason, a senior research associate in foreign policy and defence programme at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre.
“This will make competing for influence in Southeast Asia and the Pacific more challenging.”
Southeast Asia has grown accustomed to a lack of consistent engagement from the United States in recent years, with observers reporting regional leaders feeling their meetings and summits are often overlooked by Washington.The Trump administration, in particular, gained a reputation for an erratic Asia policy. Trump skipped four consecutive East Asia Summits from 2017 to 2020, signalling his disinterest in the region.Biden, the current US president, also faced criticism when he failed to attend the 43rd Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summit hosted by Indonesia in September last year. Some Asean member states viewed this as a snub of the regional bloc.Philippine and US troops prepare for the opening ceremonies of the joint Balikatan military exercises in Quezon City, Philippines, 2017. Photo: EPA/EFEOne concrete action the first Trump administration did take was clarifying the US Mutual Defence Treaty with the Philippines in 2019 – making clear that Washington would come to Manila’s aid in the event of a conflict in the South China Sea.“That really shored up the US-Philippine alliance and the Biden administration has stuck to that policy,” said Hunter Marston, a Southeast Asia researcher at the Australian National University. The Philippines has strengthened military ties with Washington in the years since by allowing US forces expanded access to military bases in the country.The Biden administration has continued this “integrated deterrence” approach of boosting security coordination through mini-lateral groupings in the region, Marston said. For instance, a new informal “Squad” comprising the US, Australia, Japan and the Philippines was formed during a defence ministers’ meeting in Hawaii in May 2023.This week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is embarking on a six-nation tour of Asia that includes stops in Vietnam, Laos, Japan, the Philippines and Singapore. Marston said this demonstrates a return to having “familiar faces” from the administration engaging with Southeast Asia, as Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin is also a regular visitor to the region, most recently for the Shangri-La Dialogue.US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) with President Joe Biden on July 11. Blinken has been a regular visitor to Asia. Photo: Abaca Press/TNS
Trump’s era, by contrast, saw a frequent turnover of senior officials. “The inconsistency of personnel was notable,” Marston said.
If Trump were to return to the White House, he would likely revert to a “pattern of benign neglect” towards Southeast Asia, according to Marston – though he suggested that regional leaders were now better prepared to manage US policy shifts regardless of who sits in the Oval Office.
“My sense is that Southeast Asian leaders are not particularly concerned,” he said. “Either administration with a different leader at the helm will not significantly alter their own foreign policies towards the US.”
Consistent inconsistencyInstead, the main concern is whether a second Trump administration would make “rash policy decisions” on issues related to Taiwan and mainland China, which could have significant destabilising effects and draw Southeast Asian countries into a perilous geopolitical crossfire.
“There may be cause to worry about potential alliance commitments and US credibility to come to the defence of some Southeast Asian partners,” Marston said.
Ultimately, experts say that US interests in Southeast Asia are largely focused on counterbalancing China’s growing military power and influence in the region.
According to Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations in the US, Trump’s policies towards Asia during his first term were often informed by the personal bonds he forgedd with regional leaders – “most notably” ex-Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte – rather than any consistent strategic approach.Trump speaks with Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines then-president, in Manila in 2017. Photo: Reuters
Trump had “personal bonds at times with leaders but a high degree of flexibility in policy, depending on the circumstances” and how he felt about them, Kurlantzick said.
Despite accusations of human rights violations under Duterte’s drug war in the Philippines, Trump praised his “great relationship” with the former president, mirroring his approach to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, with whom he held three face-to-face meetings.Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said the Trump administration would be remembered for exacerbating US-China tensions and raising doubts about American commitment to alliances and partnerships. Trump’s rhetoric, such as accusing Taiwan’s chip industry of stealing American business and demanding protection fees, pointed to his inward-looking and protectionist tendencies.However, Chong said these tendencies had encouraged like-minded countries in the region to work more actively with each other. This can be seen in their increased interactions, such as the talks held on July 15 between South Korea and New Zealand to bolster bilateral cooperation, and the landmark military pact the Philippines and Japan signed earlier this month, allowing the deployment of forces on each other’s territory.From left: South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, New Zealand PM Cristopher Luxon, Japan PM Fumio Kishida and Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles at the Nato summit on July 11. Photo: KyodoA group of key US allies – Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea – have also been working to coordinate more with Nato. Together, they issued a joint statement condemning the “illicit military cooperation” between Russia and North Korea as the four took part in this month’s summit of the transatlantic security alliance.
Nason from the United States Studies Centre observed that Trump’s “muscular, zero-sum impulses” had rattled the foundations of Washington’s regional partnerships. The former president’s first administration displayed “disinterest” in multilateralism and adopted a “pugnacious” approach towards burden-sharing, unsettling many of America’s Asian allies, she said.
A Japanese air-cushioned landing craft takes part in the Rim of the Pacific military exercises in Hawaii on July 18. Photo: ReutersClosing ranks
These anxieties about the effect of a second Trump administration on US security commitments have driven Japan and Australia to expand cooperation with other regional partners and increase their national defence spending, even as Washington under Biden has been seeking to reassure its Indo-Pacific allies.
Last year, Australia and the Philippines elevated their relationship to a strategic partnership and agreed to conduct joint patrols in the South China Sea. In January, Canberra also signed an agreement with Japan to enhance their strategic capabilities in robotic and autonomous systems for undersea warfare.
As Japan plans to spend some US$300 billion through 2027 to bolster its military power – nearly doubling its annual defence spending to more than US$68 billion, making it the world’s third-largest military spender after the US and China – Australia’s latest budget also featured a significant increase in defence funding, with more than US$500 billion allocated over the next decade.
Regarding the prospect of a second Trump administration, Nason said the appointment of J.D. Vance as his running mate signals a reaffirmation of Trump’s first-term foreign-policy positions: “prioritising Asia over Europe, muscling up against China, and increasing trade protectionism”.Trump 2.0 could challenge some of the foundations of US defence networks in the Indo-PacificAlice Nason, US foreign policy analyst
“Trump 2.0 could challenge some of the foundations of US defence networks in the Indo-Pacific, while his misgivings about the cost of providing for partners’ defence will persist unconstrained,” she said.
Trump’s withdrawal from the TPP trade pact was perhaps the decision with the widest-ranging implications for the region, said Kei Koga, an associate professor in the public policy and global affairs programme at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, as “the TPP was the most important geoeconomic tool for the US to reassure its commitments to Asia and shape regional economic architecture.”
While the Biden administration later launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, this “does not include negotiations for free-trade agreements”, Koga said, leaving the US without a comparable tool to the TPP.Experts predict that Trump would continue his transactional approach to foreign policy in a second administration, seeking greater burden-sharing between the US and its allies – as evidenced by his previous demands for Japan and South Korea to significantly increase their contributions to the costs of US military deployments in their countries.South Korean and US soldiers bump fists as they take part in joint drills in 2022. There are more than 20,000 US troops based in South Korea. Photo: ReutersThis could lead to a reduced US commitment towards defending Ukraine, changes in Washington’s support for Israel, and expectations for Taiwan to pay more for its defence, Koga said, creating new strategic dynamics in the region and potentially negatively affecting US allies.However, Japan under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been strengthening ties with the US both directly and via other allies – indicating that “even if the US shows its reluctance to increase economic and security commitment to the region, Japan will keep the US in by cooperating with other US allies and partners,” Koga said.
In the case of South Korea, Trump’s recent remarks suggesting a willingness to let Pyongyang keep its nuclear weapons and engage in arms reduction talks – rather than pursuing complete denuclearisation – were alarming, said Moon Seong-mook, a senior researcher at the Seoul-based Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.
“This is a scenario Seoul strongly opposes,” Moon said, adding that if this were to occur, “South Koreans’ confidence in US extended deterrence would plummet, leading to increased calls for South Korea to develop its own nuclear capabilities.”
North Korea’s Kim Jong-un watches the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile with his family in December from an undisclosed location Photo: KCNA via KNS/AFPIn December, Trump reportedly said he was considering a plan to let North Korea keep its nuclear weapons and offer its regime financial incentives to stop making new bombs, but he later dismissed these claims as “disinformation”.
Kim Jung-sup, a senior researcher of security strategy at the Sejong Institute think tank, said Seoul should begin re-evaluating its diplomatic policy of heavy alignment with the US and Japan, which has in turn heightened tensions with Russia, China, and North Korea.
“A second Trump administration could put Seoul in an awkward situation,” he said, adding that greater flexibility will be needed to cope with diplomatic uncertainties if Trump returns to the White House.
H.R. McMaster, who served as national security adviser under Trump from 2017-18, has speculated in comments to American conservative think tank the Hudson Institute that Kim Jong-un might try to rekindle his “bromance” with Trump.
Trump stands with Kim at the Military Demarcation Line that divides North and South Korea in 2019. Photo: AFP/Getty Images/TNSMcMaster suggested that Kim could offer up a deal whereby the US would withdraw its forces from the Korean peninsula and allow North Korea to retain a limited nuclear arsenal, in exchange for Pyongyang stopping its long-range ballistic missile programme and limiting its development of nuclear arms.For India, meanwhile, a Trump presidency could reinforce a growing strategic defence relationship with Washington, potentially prompting New Delhi to further shift its decades of dependence on all-weather friend Russia for sourcing weapons and equipment.
More than half of India’s military equipment is of Russian origin, but Delhi has been increasingly looking to the US and its allies for alternatives, particularly as Moscow’s ongoing war with Ukraine has made supplies uncertain.
During Trump’s first term, defence cooperation between the US and India was strengthened, “driven by mutual concerns over China’s regional ambitions”, said Soumya Bhowmick, an associate fellow at the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank.
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Should China be concerned about the latest Japan-Philippines security pact?
Should China be concerned about the latest Japan-Philippines security pact?
“Trump’s robust military and economic stance on China could further align US and Indian security interests, potentially leading to increased defence trade and joint initiatives,” said Bhowmick, who specialises in globalisation economics and sustainable development.
However, Vivek Mishra, a fellow with the think tank’s strategic studies programme, suggested that Trump may ask India to deploy more resources to boost the regional presence of the Quad – the four-way security grouping that also includes the US, Australia and Japan“You could see Trump pressurising India to increase its boots on ground,” Mishra said, noting that during his first administration, Washington had urged Delhi to send more troops to Afghanistan even as US forces were being pulled out.A Indian soldier and a US soldier carrying their respective national flags take a break amid disaster relief drills in the Indian state of Uttarakhand in 2022. Photo: APChina tensions
Washington’s withdrawal from the TPP under Trump had significant geopolitical ramifications, shifting the balance of trade relationships and reducing Washington’s economic influence in the region, according to Ayu Anastasya Rachman, head of the international relations department at Bina Mandiri University in Indonesia’s Gorontalo province.
This paved the way for China to bolster its influence through initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a 15-member trade bloc that incorporates all 10 of the Asean member states as well as Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand.Rachman said the Trump administration’s “unpredictability” and hard stance against China had heightened tensions in the region – referring to the sweeping tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, which ignited a trade war beginning in 2018, and Washington’s insistence on prioritising competition over cooperation.Mike Pence, Trump’s former vice-president, condemned China’s military aggression, especially in the South China Sea, and accused Beijing of intellectual property theft and election interference.Trump goes to shake hands with China’s President Xi Jinping during a meeting in Beijing in 2017. Photo: Tass/Abaca Press/TNS
Rachman warned that a continuation of protectionist policies could exacerbate trade tensions and disrupt global supply chains, adversely affecting Asean members as they navigate “heightened uncertainties” and “weigh their economic interests against their security needs”.
A potential return of Trump to the White House could mean a stronger anti-China stance that further “polarises” the region, Rachman said, potentially pushing countries “to align more definitively with either the US or China”.
Australian National University’s Marston concurred, noting that a second Trump administration might renew pressure on Southeast Asian nations to abandon their diplomatic balancing act, risking the alienation of some countries like Cambodia, which have grown closer to China in recent years.
“Hopefully that lesson has been learned and a second Trump administration wouldn’t go out and badger Southeast Asian countries to hedge less or to choose sides, because that will have the unintended consequence of pushing Southeast Asian states further away from Washington,” he said.
Rachman cautioned that the “broader implication” of such a move could be “an intensification of the security dilemma”, potentially leading to increased military build-up and exacerbating regional tensions.
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Publish date : 2024-07-26 21:00:11
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